A win for Virgin, but not for Kent
Plus Reform fractures deepen in Kent, two very different by-elections, news in brief, and more
The return of international rail services to Kent supposedly nudged forward this week, with the government granting Virgin access to possibly begin cross-Channel services in 2030. While Kent leaders publicly celebrated, how likely are trains to return to Ebbsfleet and Ashford? Read the detail, and you might find we’ll be waiting even longer for that. Further down, Reform’s week has gone from bad to worse, with five of their councillors being expelled in the past week, and two by-elections in the county tonight have produced very different results. There’s also news in brief, and a fascinating long-read published elsewhere by an upstart young journalist.
A win for Virgin, but not for Kent
For the first time in thirty years, Eurostar is no longer the only company cleared to run trains through the Channel Tunnel. The rail regulator has approved Virgin Trains’ bid for access to the Temple Mills International depot in east London, a required first step for any operator hoping to run cross-Channel services.
Virgin plans to begin operating in 2030. The company says it will invest up to £700m, create 400 jobs, and run services to Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam. The Office of Rail and Road called Virgin’s proposal the strongest and most credible, saying it offered the highest confidence of delivery and the best prospects of using limited depot capacity effectively.
National headlines focused on competition, fares, and the end of Eurostar’s monopoly. In Kent, the mood was more complicated. For five years, the campaign here has not been about competition. It has been about whether international trains will ever stop in Kent again. Today did not answer that.
Kent leaders moved quickly to welcome the announcement. Kent County Council leader Linden Kemkaran called it the “right decision” and said Kent is “one step closer.” Ashford leader Noel Ovenden said the town stands “ready for trade, ready for jobs, ready for tourism.” Dartford leader Jeremy Kite said it was “good news” while noting that the outcome does not actually reopen Ashford or Ebbsfleet. Medway leader Vince Maple described it as a “positive step” and said he hopes plans “stay on track.”
There was a common thread. Each statement celebrated momentum, but none could point to a firm commitment that international trains will return to Kent. That is because none exists.
The regulator stressed that its role was limited. It approved the use of a maintenance depot. It did not specify where trains must stop. It said plainly that it “cannot require Virgin Trains to run specific services.” Virgin’s plans, as submitted to the regulator, involve services from St Pancras. There is no confirmed Kent stop.
Virgin’s position is conditional. In a letter to the regulator dated 15 October, the company said that “if either of the stations are re-opened, its services will stop in Kent.” That is a promise to use stations if they already exist and are staffed, secured, and approved. It is not a promise to help reopen them. It places responsibility on government and local authorities, not the operator.
Other bidders went further. Trenitalia publicly committed to serving Ashford. Gemini planned to call at Ebbsfleet and consider Ashford. These bids were rejected. Virgin, which did not build Kent stops into its formal application, won because its financial modelling and readiness were stronger. The regulator’s task was to choose a viable operator, not to deliver Kent services.
It is important to be honest about what happened today. The national rail market took a step forward. Kent did not. The county remains without any guarantee of services. Even in the best-case scenario, trains will not stop here before 2030. That assumes government, border officials and local partners fund and reopen the stations. None of that work has started.
Kent’s leaders are right to say they will keep pushing. They have little choice. The campaign to restore international services has been one of Kent's few areas of genuine cross-party unity. Councillors, MPs and business groups have rallied behind it. A petition has gathered more than 82,000 signatures. The rail minister recently told Kent leaders that “the government hears you.” Today’s decision shows that the case for competition has been accepted nationally.
But there is a difference between welcoming competition and funding Kent stations. Ministers can celebrate today and still avoid committing to reopening border control at Ebbsfleet and Ashford. Virgin can expand its services without having to call at either station. And Kent can claim progress while the platforms stay dark.
The risk is that today becomes the political answer to future questions. When asked why international services have not returned, ministers and local leaders will now have a new line. Competition is coming, they will say. A new operator has been approved. The system is moving. Give it time. That may be true, but it does not get Kent any nearer to an actual train.
The county has been here before. When Eurostar first withdrew services in 2020, assurances were given that it was temporary. When border infrastructure was mothballed, officials used words like paused. When leaders first began lobbying, they highlighted economic damage and tourism loss. When the petition passed tens of thousands of signatures, the argument was framed as public will. Each milestone came with statements of momentum. The stations are still shut.
The regulator has now said that competition is viable and that depot capacity exists. Virgin has a path to operate. That does matter. It kills off the argument that the market cannot support more than one operator. It strengthens Kent’s case in principle.
In practice, the county is still reliant on a chain of decisions outside its control. The Home Office would need to agree border staffing. The Treasury would need to approve capital work. Network Rail and border agencies would need to recommission facilities. Virgin would need to schedule calls. And all of that would need to align before the first service in 2030.
There may be a genuine breakthrough ahead. Virgin may eventually call at Kent. Government may commit to reopening both stations. The infrastructure may return. The campaign may succeed. But today did not deliver that. Today confirmed something narrower. Someone else will run trains through the tunnel. Kent will still have to fight to ensure they stop.
For now, Ashford and Ebbsfleet remain silent. The county has momentum but no timetable, headlines but no trains. The announcements will fade, the press photos will blur, and Kent will still be waiting on the platform. The country is getting competition. Kent, once again, is getting promises.
Reform fractures deepen in Kent
Nearly two weeks after the leaked Reform group video, the situation at County Hall has continued to unravel. Five councillors have been expelled, one remains suspended, and the group elected on a wave of enthusiasm in May is visibly fraying.
This week saw the removal of Cllrs Paul Thomas, Oliver Bradshaw and Brian Black. Thomas and Bradshaw had already been suspended shortly after the footage emerged, but Black’s expulsion came out of the blue. There had been no public suggestion that he was involved in the leak, and the party has given no details beyond accusing the trio of “dishonest and deceptive behaviour.”
They follow Cllrs Bill Barrett and Robert Ford, who were pushed out over the weekend. Barrett has accused the leadership of bullying and running what he called a “toxic” operation. Reform disputes the bullying claims but has not explained the specific allegations behind any of the expulsions.
The numbers underline the scale of the upheaval. Reform arrived at County Hall in May with 57 of 81 seats. It now has 49. The administration remains in control, but the confidence of the early months has given way to disciplinary notices, statements and repeated efforts by the leadership to steady the narrative.
Cllr Linden Kemkaran has responded by leaning in. In broadcast interviews this week, she said she makes “no apology” for being “direct, forthright, blunt” and at times “fruity” in her language. She painted those who have left as a frustrated minority who had lost internal votes or hoped for cabinet roles. “We may be smaller,” she said, “but we are far more muscular.”
Others see the opposite. Barrett has already begun work on forming a new Independent Reformers group and has been in discussion with other former members. If all the independent Reform councillors were to organise as a single group, they would be larger than the Conservative, Labour or Green groups.
The drama has not been contained within County Hall. Cllr Black’s exit means the Kent and Medway Fire and Rescue Authority has now lost two Reform chairs in a matter of months. Labour figures warned that the authority, usually run by consensus, is being pulled into turmoil and will now see its third chair in just over six months.
Relations across Kent are also strained. In a letter to fellow council leaders, Kemkaran repeated her view that many show a “shocking level of ignorance” about the costs of local government reorganisation. Maidstone’s Green leader, Stuart Jeffrey, called the message “quite obnoxious.” Tonbridge and Malling’s Conservative leader Matt Boughton suggested she should focus on the problems in her own administration, calling them “shambolic.”
County Hall continues to operate, and officers keep the system moving. But the promise of disciplined and focused local government has given way to expulsions, rebuttals and rival group meetings. Reform still holds power. Whether it still holds cohesion is now the question.
Two very different by-elections
It’s always the way. You wait for one by-election, and two come along at the same time. This evening, two very different parts of the county voted to elect new borough councillors following two resignations.
Reform took their second seat on Thanet District Council in a by-election that is rather difficult to compare to the previous result, where the now defunct Thanet Independents romped to victory with half of the vote. Reform appear to have swept up the majority of that vote, with the Conservatives actually increasing their vote share compared to 2023, something that will bring at least some minor cheer to the party in the county.
Garlinge, Thanet result:
➡️ Darren Oxborrow (Reform): 44.6%
🌳 Kerry Boyd (Conservative): 32.0%
🌹 Bryan Harrod (Labour): 7.9%
🌍 Deb Shotton (Green): 7.8%
🔶 Matthew Brown (Lib Dem): 4.6%
⚪ Ian Driver (Independent): 3.1%
Not fancying a trip to the seaside in these conditions, the Kent Current team attended a different election over in Tunbridge Wells, where the Lib Dems retained their seat in St John’s ward, and somehow, we were the only journalists that turned up. The result was a fairly emphatic win that largely mirrored the results from the same ward earlier in the year. Not much changed here at all, beyond Labour failing to stand a candidate this time because they couldn’t submit complete nomination papers for their candidate.
St John’s, Tunbridge Wells result:
🔶 Ukonu Obasi (Lib Dem): 53.3%
➡️ Chris Hoare (Reform): 15.0%
🌍 Kate Sergeant (Green): 13.5%
⚪ Kit Hawes-Webb (Tunbridge Wells Alliance): 8.9%
🌳 David Sumner (Conservative): 7.6%
⚪ Joe Dore (Independents for Tunbridge Wells): 1.7%
Speaking to us following his election, new councillor Ukonu Obasi told us, “I love this community. It’s a very diverse, welcoming community, and it’s my honour and pleasure to be elected to serve them.” Asked why so many people voted for him in the election, he told us that the Lib Dems represent “a strong voice in British politics. We are sensible, we are campaigning for things people care about. We’re very community-based, and of course, locally here, it’s all about community. So the vote and the majority that we’ve won here represents the confidence that people have with the Liberal Democrats, not only to deliver for them locally but also to stand up for the things that they believe in.”
The next Kent by-election is on 13 November, when voters in Wincheap will elect a new councillor to Canterbury City Council.
Today, we were the only journalists in the room for a by-election in Kent. We can only be there to cover what other people aren’t because generous readers pay to support our work. If you believe it’s important that journalists are in the room for election counts, council meetings, and to hold those in power to account, please consider supporting us today.
In brief
🚫 In shades of a story we reported on a couple of weeks ago, Ashford Borough Council has refused planning permission for a battery storage facility near Brabourne Lees. The council cited ‘significant adverse effects on landscape character’ that would be caused by the plans.
🕳️ Southern Water are spending £3m to seal sewers around Sittingbourne to stop them overflowing during storms.
🚑 South East Coast Ambulance Service is set to come together with South Central Ambulance Service. Each service will operate independently but will share resources on areas like digital innovation and clinical best practice.
🔥 A former nightclub in Northfleet caught fire on Sunday, leaving debris containing asbestos. Work is still ongoing to clean up the scene.
🐦 Bird flu has been identified at a property in Newington, near Sittingbourne, resulting in a 3km protected zone being enforced around the area.
🅿️ Residents are outraged that Canterbury City Council are planning to increase parking fees by 10p per hour, some calling the move ‘diabolical.’
More Currents
This isn’t strictly another edition of the Kent Current, but I did a bit of writing on the side this week, putting together a long-read for The New World magazine on (what else?) six months of Reform running Kent County Council. There won’t necessarily be any new details for established readers of this publication, but I think it’s a pretty good read regardless.
Footnotes
Have a Kent story you think we might be interested in? Get in touch via hello(at)kentcurrent(dot)news - We’re always happy to talk off the record in the first instance…
Follow us on social media! We’re on Facebook, BlueSky, and Instagram for now.
Enjoying the Kent Current? Pass it on. If you know someone who’d like this too, forward them this email and invite them to subscribe.
The fact you were the only journalists to turn up to an election where the Lib Dems were favoured to win doesn’t surprise me. The party continually gets ignored by the press despite winning more by elections than Labour tories and the greens since May. The fact they also won a Reform seat last night will probably get ignored too.